The final CrossFit Open Live Announcement athlete matchup of the year has just been revealed, and it looks like they may just have saved the best for last.
We will be watching six-time CrossFit Games champion Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr go head-to-head against 2023 CrossFit Games bronze medalist Arielle Loewen in a battle that should set the tone for the beginning of the season.
For this matchup, we’re breaking down each athlete’s strengths and weaknesses and giving predictions on who will come out on top, just like we did with the 24.1 and 24.2 matchups.
Since we don’t yet know what the workout will be, we will provide insights on potential movement advantages based on historical data.
[Related: The 10 Best CrossFit Athletes of 2023]
Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr vs. Arielle Loewen
Anytime a six-time champion is competing, they are going to be heavily favored to win, and 24.3 is no different.
After a season away from competition due to pregnancy, Toomey-Orr is no doubt hungry to compete and show the world that she is still the top dog. And following the 2023 Rogue Invitational, where she just barely finished in second place, 10 points behind 2023 Games champ Laura Horvath, Toomey-Orr is coming into the season with even more fire.
Just because all eyes will be on Toomey-Orr, doesn’t mean Loewen can’t surprise us with a victory here. Loewen’s performance has been on an upward trend ever since her rookie year at the Games in 2021.
Many people also forget that Loewen was the fourth-place woman on the 2023 Worldwide Open leaderboard.
Toomey-Orr Open Results (2020-2022)
Although Toomey-Orr will be favored no matter which movements are involved, let’s take a look at her last three Open years to see where she performs best:
2022 Open (2nd overall worldwide)
- 22.1: 5th
- 22.2: 1st
- 22.3: 2nd
2021 Open (1st overall worldwide)
- 21.1: 6th
- 21.2: 11th
- 21.3: 1st
- 21.4: 8th
2020 Open (4th overall worldwide)
- 20.1: 10th
- 20.2: 7th
- 20.3: 22nd
- 20.4: 4th
- 20.5: 13th
Out of the last 12 Open workouts listed above, Toomey-Orr has only finished outside of the top 10 globally four times and not once outside of the top 25. She also placed first in the world twice and even won the entire Open in 2021.
There are essentially no holes in her game and there’s a great chance she will place in the top 10 globally in this workout.
Loewen Open Results (2021-2023)
Let’s take a quick look at Loewen’s past three Open performances:
2023 Open (4th overall worldwide)
- 23.1: 9th
- 23.2A: 74th
- 23.2B: 136th
- 23.3: 25th
2022 Open (16th overall worldwide)
- 22.1: 66th
- 22.2: 32nd
- 22.3: 42nd
2021 Open (243rd overall worldwide)
- 21.1: 7th
- 21.2: 199th
- 21.3: 269th
- 21.4: 2121st
[Related: A Look at Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr’s First Full Training Day in 2024]
As mentioned earlier, Loewen has continued to improve in all areas over the past three years and this is evident in her Open results above.
As opposed to 2021 and 2022, where she only had one total workout finish in the top 25, Loewen had two in 2023. Judging by her score in 23.2B (1RM Thruster), it also looks like she has dramatically improved her strength from 2021.
Loewen placed only one spot behind Toomey-Orr in 21.1, where they both finished inside the top 10, separated by just 10 seconds.
That workout consisted of the following:
21.1:
- For Time
1-3-6-9-15-21 Wall Walks
10-30-60-90-150-210 Double-UndersTime Cap: 15 Minutes
If Dave Castro and the CrossFit HQ staff did their homework, 24.3 might include one or both of these movements to ensure a close battle.
Advantages
Here’s a look at which athlete has the advantage in specific categories.
Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr
The largest gap in performance between Toomey-Orr and Loewen is strength, where Toomey-Orr would likely run away with the event.
If we want to determine specific movement advantages, let’s take a look at the movements that were involved in Toomey-Orr’s event wins in 22.2 and 21.3:
Although these results show that Toomey-Orr should have the advantage in gymnastic bar movements, don’t sleep on Loewen, thanks to her own gymnastic prowess.
Strength aside, an argument can be made for Toomey-Orr for every movement and modality in the CrossFit universe. After all, she is a six-time champion.
Arielle Loewen
Loewen has an uphill battle ahead of her against Toomey-Orr, but one area where she can potentially make up some ground is in gymnastics, especially if burpee box jump-overs are involved.
Just take a look at how well Loewen did in workouts last season that involved burpee box jump-overs:
2023 Quarterfinals:
- Workout 3 – 18th Worldwide
2023 Semifinals:
- Workout 2 – 2nd North America West
2023 Games:
- Event 8: Intervals – 3rd Overall
Besides burpee box jump-overs, Loewen also does extremely well in gymnastic bar movements and is likely just as polished as Toomey-Orr when it comes to pull-ups or muscle-ups.
One potential wild card movement that could give Loewen a slight advantage over Toomey-Orr is the shuttle run.
In shuttle run workout 23.1, Loewen finished ninth in the world and she finished third in the 5K run at the 2023 Games, showing us that Loewen is very efficient in running workouts.
When it comes to wall walks and double-unders, both of these athletes are essentially even as we pointed out earlier.
Some Final Thoughts
Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr is absolutely the heavy favorite to win this workout, just as she is with most workouts. But if we get a gymnastics-heavy, running-heavy workout, Arielle Loewen may just have a shot at a surprise win.
Featured image: @crossfitgames / Instagram
The post CrossFit Open Workout 24.3 Matchup: Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr Vs. Arielle Loewen appeared first on BarBend.