Edson Barboza
Record: 15-3
Key Wins: Bobby Green (UFC Fight Night 57), Danny Castillo (UFC on FOX 9), Evan Dunham (UFC Fight Night 45)
Key Losses: Donald Cerrone (UFC on FOX 11), Michael Johnson (UFC Fight Night 61)
Keys to Victory: Barboza is perhaps the most vicious kicker in the sport today. The Muay Thai striker kicks with ruthless power, and he's capable of ending fights immediately with a single kick to the body or head.
Oh, and he's also finished two fights by slowly destroying his opponents' legs.
In this bout, it's absolutely vital that Barboza gets his opponent's respect early. Felder will almost certainly look to pressure Barboza -- otherwise, he'll be giving the fight away -- and Barboza needs to force him away from that strategy.
Simply put, Barboza needs to land something significant and do his best to avoid stepping backward. If Felder's initial advances are met with a hard combo of counter punches and a low kick, the Philadelphia-native will be unlikely to push forward so aggressively.
Speaking of low kicks, they could also be an important tool for Barboza in this bout. Whenever Felder looks to commit to moving forward, Barboza should take a step back, get his head off the center line, and dig his shin into his opponent's thigh.
If Barboza prevents his opponent from pressuring, he will own the fight.
VS.
Paul Felder
Record: 10-0
Key Wins: Danny Castillo (UFC 182), Jason Saggo (UFC Fight Night 54)
Key Losses: None
Keys to Victory: A talented striker with a background in Tae Kwon Doe, Karate, and Muay Thai, Felder's earned his undefeated record, along with seven knockout wins, by brutalizing his opponents on the feet. In addition, Felder appears to be one of the biggest and strongest lightweights in the world, towering over his opponents.
As mentioned above, pressure is the name of the game for Felder in this fight. While it's still not an easy thing to do, it's more than proven that Barboza struggles with fighters that keep him on his back foot.
Luckily, Felder has an excellent combination of power and technique to employ this strategy. Felder is an absolute bruiser, and he's aggressive enough to walk through Barboza's punches to score with his own power shots.
Plus, the undefeated combatant's chin is more trustworthy than Barboza's at this point.
While landing a few well-placed punches and knocking Barboza cold should be Felder's end game, that does mean that he should abandon his kicks. After pushing Barboza into the fence, Felder should look to counter his opponent's attempts to circle with a heavy body or head kick.
In turn, this will keep Barboza on the fence longer, leaving him more vulnerable to Felder's punches.
Bottom Line: While the weight class never lacks contenders, the winner of this bout is certainly just a win or two away from a shot at the strap. Plus, there's almost no way this fight will turn out to be boring.
This is a pretty important fight for Barboza. If he's able to turn away the rising star, it will certainly give him some momentum. While it's not enough to earn him a title shot after his loss to Johnson, the Brazilian would only need a couple more victories.
On the other hand, a loss here might kill Barboza's chance at fighting for the belt, at least in the near future. His strength is striking, so a second loss in a row to another striking specialist would make climbing the ranks more difficult.
Felder has a massive opportunity here. If he manages to knockout Barboza, he'd be riding an incredible wave of momentum straight to the top. In fact, it would likely result in a No. 1 contender's bout with Michael Johnson before the end of the year.
Not bad for 11 fights.
On the other hand, a loss would mean it's time to slow down the hype train, if just a bit. Barboza is a spectacular striker, whereas Felder's best performance so far came against a wrestling specialist. Those are drastically different styles, and a loss could show where Felder's vulnerabilities lie.
At UFC on FOX 16, Edson Barboza and Paul Felder will battle. Which man will remain standing when the dust settles?
