Ox 51
Musclechemistry Guru
From ESPN Fantasy Staff
Sleepers
These are the players our panel believes will exceed their 2018 average draft position and provide value for those who take a chance on them.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle was one of the best rushing teams in the league during the first half of the decade, with Marshawn Lynch as a perennial threat for at least 1,500 total yards and double-digit touchdowns. The Seahawks have struggled on the ground during the past three seasons, but Penny is their most talented running back since Lynch. A first-round pick with both strength and burst, Penny averaged 7.8 yards per carry in college last year. The Seahawks have spoken of using Penny as an every-down back in a heavy-rushing offensive system that lacks playmakers, which gives him big upside. -- Andre Snellings
Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans
Last season was a disaster for Mariota from a statistical perspective; 23rd in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, and he had more turnovers than passing touchdowns. Where does the optimism come from? Time traveling to a modern NFL offense surely helps -- especially with an offensive coordinator from the Rams -- as does the fact that he averaged the 15th-most fantasy points at the position in his first two seasons. There is not just a great deal of untapped potential with Mariota's passing production. This gifted collegiate scrambler ranks 19th among QBs in rushing attempts per game since 2015, a rate that could surely rise in a more progressive scheme. -- Jim McCormick
Kalen Ballage, RB, Miami Dolphins
He's a 6-foot-2, 230-pound bruiser who ran a 4.46 40 at the combine and has flashed pass-catching ability (44 receptions in 2016). Already turning heads at training camp -- just google his name -- I wrote about Ballage after interviewing him. And while I think Kenyan Drake is a good football player, I am not convinced the Dolphins see him as a bell-cow running back. Who knows how much Frank Gore has left in the tank, and given Ballage's size, it's very easy to see him starting off as a short-yardage/goal-line back and expanding his role even further as the season goes on. -- Matthew Berry
Alex Smith, QB, Washington Redskins
It wasn't a fluke that Smith finished fourth in quarterback points last season, as he finished tied for fourth in YPA (7.9), first in stretch vertical YPA (21.9 on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield), sixth in quarterback rushing yards (355) and tied for second in my bad decision rate (BDR) metric that measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team (0.2 percent). Washington ranks tied for second in vertical touchdown passes during the past two seasons (29 scoring throws traveling 11 or more yards downfield), so they didn't bring Smith in to run a dink-and-dunk aerial attack. Add it up and Smith has good odds of being a QB1 again this season.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Sometimes all a player needs is a change of scenery to realize his potential, and that is precisely what McKinnon is getting. In his move from Minnesota to San Francisco, he will be putting all of his athletic skills to use, not just to run but also to catch. In fact, coach Kyle Shanahan has already said McKinnon will line up as a wideout at times. Speed and explosiveness combined with the opportunity to snag passes is the stuff of PPR dreams. McKinnon will likely be undervalued in this season's drafts based on his recent stats as a Viking, but the numbers he posts with the 49ers should showcase his first-round worth. -- Stephania Bell
O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While Cameron Brate put up the greater fantasy point total last season, Howard's role seemed to expand as the year progressed. One could point to Ryan Fitzpatrick's brief time filling in during Jameis Winston's injuries (three games and portions of two others) for an explanation, but even after Winston's return in Week 13, the pendulum appeared to have shifted in Howard's direction. During the season's second half, Howard played more snaps than Brate (264-259) and had more PPR fantasy points (48.5-45.7), despite playing two fewer games. I think it was a clear sign that Howard's future as the team's primary pass-catcher is close, and he's got enough skill to be a top-10 tight end if those trends continue. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots
Due to injuries and a busy depth chart, Burkhead didn't play more than 10 offensive plays in a game for New England until Week 7 last season. From Week 7 on, however, Burkhead averaged 14.1 fantasy points (PPR) on 21.3 snaps per game. There are valuable unclaimed touches in New England; the Patriots are tied atop the league (Saints) with 75 carries within 5 yards of the goal line by their running backs during the past three seasons. If Burkhead, who proved dangerous in the red zone last season, can claim a healthy share of goal-to-go work, I think there is real profit potential. -- Jim McCormick
Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears
The hopeful parallel for Trubisky is Jared Goff, who pivoted his career after a forgettable rookie season to throw 28 touchdowns in Year 2 under the guidance of Sean McVay as his head coach. Trubisky, who managed just seven touchdowns last season in 12 games, now follows the lead of coach Matt Nagy, an exceptionally well-regarded offensive mind. Moreover, the talent level was boosted significantly this offseason with the additions of -- among others -- Allen Robinson, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel. -- Field Yates
Trey Burton, TE, Chicago Bears
The former Eagle who tossed a touchdown pass in the Super Bowl should be one of the top targets for second-year quarterback Trubisky, who should emerge now that he has better weapons and coaching. Burton steps into a wonderful situation with new coach Nagy, who came from the Chiefs and made tight end Travis Kelce a focal point of the offense. The athletic Burton should easily top 100 targets and find his way into the end zone at least six or seven times during his first season. -- Eric Karabell
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
In 2016, Ryan completed 373 passes for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns in his second year under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. In 2017, Ryan's numbers were down across the board, even though his passing attempts were roughly similar. There were growing pains with a new OC, the Falcons led the NFL with 30 drops, and they had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover. However, Ryan's career numbers suggest that he's due for a bounce back, and with first-round wide receiver Calvin Ridley added to the mix, Ryan should be able to play himself back into being a weekly fantasy starter. -- Andre Snellings
Will Fuller V, WR, Houston Texans
You'd be hard-pressed to find a statistical suggestion that Fuller is primed to soar this year, as his productive games last season had outlying traits (seven touchdowns on 13 total catches in a four-game stretch), and he posted an average of 24 yards in his other six games. A peaks-and-valleys player in 2017, Fuller should evolve into a steadier component of an offense that will be led by the wizardry of Deshaun Watson. This is a bet on the talent of Fuller, the blazing-fast 2016 first-round pick. -- Field Yates
Michael Crabtree, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Last season was lost to injury, but Crabtree's draft stock -- he is going 32nd on average among receivers -- bakes in injury risk without much appreciation for his actual production pattern. From 2015 to 2016, Crabtree ranked 16th in fantasy points per game at the position. The opportunity for elite usage in Baltimore is obvious; players who accounted for 59 percent of the team's target share are no longer on the roster, the highest vacated rate in the league. The Ravens also have 71.3 percent of their air yards from last season vacated, per AirYards.com. -- Jim McCormick
Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders
Considering Cooper is currently going as WR22 and I believe he's got top-10 potential, yeah, he qualifies as a sleeper. To succeed in the NFL, you need talent and opportunity. No one questions Cooper's talent. His concentration sometimes, sure, but not his talent. Still just 24, Cooper has more than 2,900 yards and 18 touchdowns and has averaged 14.3 yards per catch in three NFL seasons. Now, with Crabtree and others moving along, there are more than 160 targets available. I'm not a Jordy Nelson believer, so yeah, expect this offense to revolve around Cooper, who has averaged 18 fantasy points per game when he has had eight or more targets. I'm all-in on a big bounce-back season from Amari Cooper. -- Matthew Berry
Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers
In 2016, Graham averaged a career-best 14.2 yards per reception with only six touchdowns. Then he reversed the trends with a career-low 9.1 yards per reception but 10 touchdowns in 2017. Many believe Graham lost a step and became a possession receiver, but Graham never had the chemistry with Russell Wilson that he displayed with Drew Brees. This season, Graham joins Aaron Rodgers in a pass-friendly system, full of motivation to perform with a non-guaranteed contract. Graham has played at least 15 games in eight of his past nine seasons, giving him both a high floor and a high ceiling. -- Andre Snellings
Brandin Cooks, WR, Los Angeles Rams
What does Cooks have to do to get more respect in the fantasy football community? He placed 15th in wide receiver fantasy points last season (221.2) and was only six points away from being in the top 10 in that category. Cooks is now on an offense piloted by Jared Goff, who ranked third in YPA last season (8.0), sixth in stretch vertical YPA (15.2) and 12th in stretch vertical pass percentage (12.7 percent of his aerials traveled 20 or more yards downfield). The downfield receiving role in the Rams offense could move Cooks back to low-tier WR1 status and yet he's still seen as a WR3 in most draft rooms.
Sleepers
These are the players our panel believes will exceed their 2018 average draft position and provide value for those who take a chance on them.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle was one of the best rushing teams in the league during the first half of the decade, with Marshawn Lynch as a perennial threat for at least 1,500 total yards and double-digit touchdowns. The Seahawks have struggled on the ground during the past three seasons, but Penny is their most talented running back since Lynch. A first-round pick with both strength and burst, Penny averaged 7.8 yards per carry in college last year. The Seahawks have spoken of using Penny as an every-down back in a heavy-rushing offensive system that lacks playmakers, which gives him big upside. -- Andre Snellings
Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans
Last season was a disaster for Mariota from a statistical perspective; 23rd in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, and he had more turnovers than passing touchdowns. Where does the optimism come from? Time traveling to a modern NFL offense surely helps -- especially with an offensive coordinator from the Rams -- as does the fact that he averaged the 15th-most fantasy points at the position in his first two seasons. There is not just a great deal of untapped potential with Mariota's passing production. This gifted collegiate scrambler ranks 19th among QBs in rushing attempts per game since 2015, a rate that could surely rise in a more progressive scheme. -- Jim McCormick
Kalen Ballage, RB, Miami Dolphins
He's a 6-foot-2, 230-pound bruiser who ran a 4.46 40 at the combine and has flashed pass-catching ability (44 receptions in 2016). Already turning heads at training camp -- just google his name -- I wrote about Ballage after interviewing him. And while I think Kenyan Drake is a good football player, I am not convinced the Dolphins see him as a bell-cow running back. Who knows how much Frank Gore has left in the tank, and given Ballage's size, it's very easy to see him starting off as a short-yardage/goal-line back and expanding his role even further as the season goes on. -- Matthew Berry
Alex Smith, QB, Washington Redskins
It wasn't a fluke that Smith finished fourth in quarterback points last season, as he finished tied for fourth in YPA (7.9), first in stretch vertical YPA (21.9 on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield), sixth in quarterback rushing yards (355) and tied for second in my bad decision rate (BDR) metric that measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team (0.2 percent). Washington ranks tied for second in vertical touchdown passes during the past two seasons (29 scoring throws traveling 11 or more yards downfield), so they didn't bring Smith in to run a dink-and-dunk aerial attack. Add it up and Smith has good odds of being a QB1 again this season.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Sometimes all a player needs is a change of scenery to realize his potential, and that is precisely what McKinnon is getting. In his move from Minnesota to San Francisco, he will be putting all of his athletic skills to use, not just to run but also to catch. In fact, coach Kyle Shanahan has already said McKinnon will line up as a wideout at times. Speed and explosiveness combined with the opportunity to snag passes is the stuff of PPR dreams. McKinnon will likely be undervalued in this season's drafts based on his recent stats as a Viking, but the numbers he posts with the 49ers should showcase his first-round worth. -- Stephania Bell
O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While Cameron Brate put up the greater fantasy point total last season, Howard's role seemed to expand as the year progressed. One could point to Ryan Fitzpatrick's brief time filling in during Jameis Winston's injuries (three games and portions of two others) for an explanation, but even after Winston's return in Week 13, the pendulum appeared to have shifted in Howard's direction. During the season's second half, Howard played more snaps than Brate (264-259) and had more PPR fantasy points (48.5-45.7), despite playing two fewer games. I think it was a clear sign that Howard's future as the team's primary pass-catcher is close, and he's got enough skill to be a top-10 tight end if those trends continue. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots
Due to injuries and a busy depth chart, Burkhead didn't play more than 10 offensive plays in a game for New England until Week 7 last season. From Week 7 on, however, Burkhead averaged 14.1 fantasy points (PPR) on 21.3 snaps per game. There are valuable unclaimed touches in New England; the Patriots are tied atop the league (Saints) with 75 carries within 5 yards of the goal line by their running backs during the past three seasons. If Burkhead, who proved dangerous in the red zone last season, can claim a healthy share of goal-to-go work, I think there is real profit potential. -- Jim McCormick
Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears
The hopeful parallel for Trubisky is Jared Goff, who pivoted his career after a forgettable rookie season to throw 28 touchdowns in Year 2 under the guidance of Sean McVay as his head coach. Trubisky, who managed just seven touchdowns last season in 12 games, now follows the lead of coach Matt Nagy, an exceptionally well-regarded offensive mind. Moreover, the talent level was boosted significantly this offseason with the additions of -- among others -- Allen Robinson, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel. -- Field Yates
Trey Burton, TE, Chicago Bears
The former Eagle who tossed a touchdown pass in the Super Bowl should be one of the top targets for second-year quarterback Trubisky, who should emerge now that he has better weapons and coaching. Burton steps into a wonderful situation with new coach Nagy, who came from the Chiefs and made tight end Travis Kelce a focal point of the offense. The athletic Burton should easily top 100 targets and find his way into the end zone at least six or seven times during his first season. -- Eric Karabell
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
In 2016, Ryan completed 373 passes for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns in his second year under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. In 2017, Ryan's numbers were down across the board, even though his passing attempts were roughly similar. There were growing pains with a new OC, the Falcons led the NFL with 30 drops, and they had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover. However, Ryan's career numbers suggest that he's due for a bounce back, and with first-round wide receiver Calvin Ridley added to the mix, Ryan should be able to play himself back into being a weekly fantasy starter. -- Andre Snellings
Will Fuller V, WR, Houston Texans
You'd be hard-pressed to find a statistical suggestion that Fuller is primed to soar this year, as his productive games last season had outlying traits (seven touchdowns on 13 total catches in a four-game stretch), and he posted an average of 24 yards in his other six games. A peaks-and-valleys player in 2017, Fuller should evolve into a steadier component of an offense that will be led by the wizardry of Deshaun Watson. This is a bet on the talent of Fuller, the blazing-fast 2016 first-round pick. -- Field Yates
Michael Crabtree, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Last season was lost to injury, but Crabtree's draft stock -- he is going 32nd on average among receivers -- bakes in injury risk without much appreciation for his actual production pattern. From 2015 to 2016, Crabtree ranked 16th in fantasy points per game at the position. The opportunity for elite usage in Baltimore is obvious; players who accounted for 59 percent of the team's target share are no longer on the roster, the highest vacated rate in the league. The Ravens also have 71.3 percent of their air yards from last season vacated, per AirYards.com. -- Jim McCormick
Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders
Considering Cooper is currently going as WR22 and I believe he's got top-10 potential, yeah, he qualifies as a sleeper. To succeed in the NFL, you need talent and opportunity. No one questions Cooper's talent. His concentration sometimes, sure, but not his talent. Still just 24, Cooper has more than 2,900 yards and 18 touchdowns and has averaged 14.3 yards per catch in three NFL seasons. Now, with Crabtree and others moving along, there are more than 160 targets available. I'm not a Jordy Nelson believer, so yeah, expect this offense to revolve around Cooper, who has averaged 18 fantasy points per game when he has had eight or more targets. I'm all-in on a big bounce-back season from Amari Cooper. -- Matthew Berry
Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers
In 2016, Graham averaged a career-best 14.2 yards per reception with only six touchdowns. Then he reversed the trends with a career-low 9.1 yards per reception but 10 touchdowns in 2017. Many believe Graham lost a step and became a possession receiver, but Graham never had the chemistry with Russell Wilson that he displayed with Drew Brees. This season, Graham joins Aaron Rodgers in a pass-friendly system, full of motivation to perform with a non-guaranteed contract. Graham has played at least 15 games in eight of his past nine seasons, giving him both a high floor and a high ceiling. -- Andre Snellings
Brandin Cooks, WR, Los Angeles Rams
What does Cooks have to do to get more respect in the fantasy football community? He placed 15th in wide receiver fantasy points last season (221.2) and was only six points away from being in the top 10 in that category. Cooks is now on an offense piloted by Jared Goff, who ranked third in YPA last season (8.0), sixth in stretch vertical YPA (15.2) and 12th in stretch vertical pass percentage (12.7 percent of his aerials traveled 20 or more yards downfield). The downfield receiving role in the Rams offense could move Cooks back to low-tier WR1 status and yet he's still seen as a WR3 in most draft rooms.
