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From ESPN Fantasy Staff
Busts
Which players are destined to fall short of their draft-day expectations? Our panel suggests you stay away from these players, who are sure to disappoint.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
It's hard to pick a bust at quarterback. There are so many similar options that the only real mistake you can make is reaching at the position. That said, Brees is going a pinch earlier than where I have him ranked. Brees finished ninth at the position in fantasy points last season, managing only four top-10 fantasy weeks (18 quarterbacks had more). He ranked ninth or lower in dropbacks, attempts and touchdowns and adds little with his legs. The Saints' defense is even better in 2018, which figures to mean even less on the 39-year-old's shoulders late in games. -- Mike Clay
Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers
While there is little doubt that Graham should fit better within the Packers' offense than that of the Seahawks, it is unclear just how many targets will come his way. The last two Green Bay tight ends (Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett) didn't exactly light the fantasy world on fire. Granted, Graham has proved himself to be a superior pass-catcher, but can he truly still get separation? (Wide receiver Jordy Nelson couldn't, and he was sent to the West Coast.) Can he get up in the air and beat out those around him to catch a classic Rodgers Hail Mary? While his recovery from a ruptured patellar tendon (2015) has been impressive, it's still fair to think this version of Jimmy Graham will not be Saints 2.0. -- Stephania Bell
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Currently going ninth among quarterbacks, Ben is my QB14, so not a huge drop, but given how deep QB is, it's hard to pick a true QB bust. But it's worth noting that he's played all 16 games just three times in a 14-year career, and here's his finish in total fantasy points the past six seasons: 2017: QB10; 2016: QB 18; 2015: QB20; 2014: QB5; 2013: QB12; 2012: QB19. He's been a top-10 QB just twice in the past six years and has beaten his current ADP of QB9 just once (2014). Whether it's a mental thing, a weird coincidence or a game plan to be more conservative on the road, the fact is that Ben is averaging fewer than 14 points per road game the past four seasons. No Todd Haley this year makes me a bit nervous as well. -- Matthew Berry
Saquon Barkley, RB, NY Giants
Let's start by making it clear that this isn't to suggest that Barkley will have a terrible rookie campaign. The issue here is that Barkley's sub-par breakaway numbers seem to be glossed over by the fantasy football community. Last season, Barkley ranked 36th among Power 5 running backs with 100 or more carries against Power 5 opponents in percentage of rushes that gained 10 or more yards (12.4 percent). For those thinking this might be a fluke number, consider that Barkley also placed 54th in percentage of rushes of five or more yards in 2016 (35.3 percent). He is likely to get a strong workload, but if the breakaway carry rate doesn't improve, the Giants may decide to split the workload more than anticipated and thus drive Barkley closer to the border of RB1 and RB2 in fantasy.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders
He's now 32 years old with more than 2,350 career carries on his legs and is coming off what was a disappointing return from retirement in 2017 (relative to what he cost in fantasy drafts at the time). The Raiders planned accordingly, bringing in Doug Martin for depth while retaining both DeAndre Washingtonand Jalen Richard, each of whom tallied at least 56 carries for a team that played a significant portion of its offensive snaps from behind. Lynch should still contribute to fantasy teams, thanks in large part to his likelihood of goal-line carries, but a timeshare is a possibility, and his statistical ceiling is probably the lowest it has been at any point in his career. I can't make the case that he belongs in the sixth round, preferring to take a chance on a higher-upside running back that early. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
The longstanding fantasy admonition against overvaluing the previous season's outlier performances immediately comes to mind when I see that Hill is on the borderline of WR1/WR2 value. Last season, he racked up six receptions that gained 50 or more yards. Only five other players have done that during the past ten seasons, and only one of those players repeated the feat in consecutive seasons (DeSean Jackson in 2009 and 2010). Hill also benefited from defensive errors, as he scored 24.5 fantasy points on coverage mistakes that occurred on throws 30 or more yards downfield, a total that was the third highest in that category. Combine these with Hill having the fifth toughest matchup points total among wide receivers and adjusting to a first-time full-time starting quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, and Hill should be considered more of a WR2/WR3 prospect in 2018.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns
A great point was raised at the ESPN Fantasy Football Summit. As a group, we've ranked a pair of Browns wide receivers (Josh Gordon being the other) generously, yet when we look at the team as a whole, there's not enough offensive strength for both players to earn a season-ending fantasy point total that'll back it up. On raw talent, both Landry and Gordon warrant those valuations, but Landry's move to Cleveland worries me most because of the extreme volume fueling his fantasy numbers during his days in Miami. He's not a big red zone threat, struggling to fill the touchdown column, and Tyrod Tayloris really no better a quarterback for Landry's skill set than any he worked with in Miami. There's a downside here, and I fear it could be perhaps a drop-off of 25 catches (or more). -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Jay Ajayi, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
The former Dolphins star averaged 5.8 yards per rush for the Eagles after his midseason acquisition, but the Super Bowl champs boast depth at this position and will not be afraid to use it. Ajayi broke out in 2016 with more than 1,200 rushing yards, but half of them came in three explosive games. The rest of the time, fantasy managers were frustrated. With chronic knee problems and constant backfield competition, Ajayi will struggle to hold RB2 status all season. -- Eric Karabell
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Successful fantasy football drafting requires seeking out value wherever it may lie. In Brady's case, he's a player being selected in a tier where he's considered the high-floor statistical performer around a bunch of other quarterbacks with higher ceilings but also "lower" floors. Therein lies the problem: Brady's floor isn't as high as you think it is, and in this era where we need to squeeze as much value out of our quarterbacks for as little cost as possible, he's a poor choice at anywhere near his current price tag.
Carlos Hyde, RB, Cleveland Browns
Hyde is one of my favorite players in the league to watch, but he simply should not be coming off the board in the single-digit rounds of fantasy drafts. Hyde was well-positioned for high-end fantasy production as the leadman in Shanahan's offense last season, but he's in a much worse situation in Cleveland. Even if Hyde holds off second-round rookie Nick Chubb for early-down/goal-line duties (not a given), he will defer change-of-pace touches and certainly most passing-down work to Duke Johnson Jr. Hyde is coming off his least efficient pro season and is looking at no more than committee duties in 2018. -- Mike Clay
Busts
Which players are destined to fall short of their draft-day expectations? Our panel suggests you stay away from these players, who are sure to disappoint.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
It's hard to pick a bust at quarterback. There are so many similar options that the only real mistake you can make is reaching at the position. That said, Brees is going a pinch earlier than where I have him ranked. Brees finished ninth at the position in fantasy points last season, managing only four top-10 fantasy weeks (18 quarterbacks had more). He ranked ninth or lower in dropbacks, attempts and touchdowns and adds little with his legs. The Saints' defense is even better in 2018, which figures to mean even less on the 39-year-old's shoulders late in games. -- Mike Clay
Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers
While there is little doubt that Graham should fit better within the Packers' offense than that of the Seahawks, it is unclear just how many targets will come his way. The last two Green Bay tight ends (Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett) didn't exactly light the fantasy world on fire. Granted, Graham has proved himself to be a superior pass-catcher, but can he truly still get separation? (Wide receiver Jordy Nelson couldn't, and he was sent to the West Coast.) Can he get up in the air and beat out those around him to catch a classic Rodgers Hail Mary? While his recovery from a ruptured patellar tendon (2015) has been impressive, it's still fair to think this version of Jimmy Graham will not be Saints 2.0. -- Stephania Bell
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Currently going ninth among quarterbacks, Ben is my QB14, so not a huge drop, but given how deep QB is, it's hard to pick a true QB bust. But it's worth noting that he's played all 16 games just three times in a 14-year career, and here's his finish in total fantasy points the past six seasons: 2017: QB10; 2016: QB 18; 2015: QB20; 2014: QB5; 2013: QB12; 2012: QB19. He's been a top-10 QB just twice in the past six years and has beaten his current ADP of QB9 just once (2014). Whether it's a mental thing, a weird coincidence or a game plan to be more conservative on the road, the fact is that Ben is averaging fewer than 14 points per road game the past four seasons. No Todd Haley this year makes me a bit nervous as well. -- Matthew Berry
Saquon Barkley, RB, NY Giants
Let's start by making it clear that this isn't to suggest that Barkley will have a terrible rookie campaign. The issue here is that Barkley's sub-par breakaway numbers seem to be glossed over by the fantasy football community. Last season, Barkley ranked 36th among Power 5 running backs with 100 or more carries against Power 5 opponents in percentage of rushes that gained 10 or more yards (12.4 percent). For those thinking this might be a fluke number, consider that Barkley also placed 54th in percentage of rushes of five or more yards in 2016 (35.3 percent). He is likely to get a strong workload, but if the breakaway carry rate doesn't improve, the Giants may decide to split the workload more than anticipated and thus drive Barkley closer to the border of RB1 and RB2 in fantasy.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders
He's now 32 years old with more than 2,350 career carries on his legs and is coming off what was a disappointing return from retirement in 2017 (relative to what he cost in fantasy drafts at the time). The Raiders planned accordingly, bringing in Doug Martin for depth while retaining both DeAndre Washingtonand Jalen Richard, each of whom tallied at least 56 carries for a team that played a significant portion of its offensive snaps from behind. Lynch should still contribute to fantasy teams, thanks in large part to his likelihood of goal-line carries, but a timeshare is a possibility, and his statistical ceiling is probably the lowest it has been at any point in his career. I can't make the case that he belongs in the sixth round, preferring to take a chance on a higher-upside running back that early. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
The longstanding fantasy admonition against overvaluing the previous season's outlier performances immediately comes to mind when I see that Hill is on the borderline of WR1/WR2 value. Last season, he racked up six receptions that gained 50 or more yards. Only five other players have done that during the past ten seasons, and only one of those players repeated the feat in consecutive seasons (DeSean Jackson in 2009 and 2010). Hill also benefited from defensive errors, as he scored 24.5 fantasy points on coverage mistakes that occurred on throws 30 or more yards downfield, a total that was the third highest in that category. Combine these with Hill having the fifth toughest matchup points total among wide receivers and adjusting to a first-time full-time starting quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, and Hill should be considered more of a WR2/WR3 prospect in 2018.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns
A great point was raised at the ESPN Fantasy Football Summit. As a group, we've ranked a pair of Browns wide receivers (Josh Gordon being the other) generously, yet when we look at the team as a whole, there's not enough offensive strength for both players to earn a season-ending fantasy point total that'll back it up. On raw talent, both Landry and Gordon warrant those valuations, but Landry's move to Cleveland worries me most because of the extreme volume fueling his fantasy numbers during his days in Miami. He's not a big red zone threat, struggling to fill the touchdown column, and Tyrod Tayloris really no better a quarterback for Landry's skill set than any he worked with in Miami. There's a downside here, and I fear it could be perhaps a drop-off of 25 catches (or more). -- Tristan H. Cockcroft
Jay Ajayi, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
The former Dolphins star averaged 5.8 yards per rush for the Eagles after his midseason acquisition, but the Super Bowl champs boast depth at this position and will not be afraid to use it. Ajayi broke out in 2016 with more than 1,200 rushing yards, but half of them came in three explosive games. The rest of the time, fantasy managers were frustrated. With chronic knee problems and constant backfield competition, Ajayi will struggle to hold RB2 status all season. -- Eric Karabell
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Successful fantasy football drafting requires seeking out value wherever it may lie. In Brady's case, he's a player being selected in a tier where he's considered the high-floor statistical performer around a bunch of other quarterbacks with higher ceilings but also "lower" floors. Therein lies the problem: Brady's floor isn't as high as you think it is, and in this era where we need to squeeze as much value out of our quarterbacks for as little cost as possible, he's a poor choice at anywhere near his current price tag.
Carlos Hyde, RB, Cleveland Browns
Hyde is one of my favorite players in the league to watch, but he simply should not be coming off the board in the single-digit rounds of fantasy drafts. Hyde was well-positioned for high-end fantasy production as the leadman in Shanahan's offense last season, but he's in a much worse situation in Cleveland. Even if Hyde holds off second-round rookie Nick Chubb for early-down/goal-line duties (not a given), he will defer change-of-pace touches and certainly most passing-down work to Duke Johnson Jr. Hyde is coming off his least efficient pro season and is looking at no more than committee duties in 2018. -- Mike Clay
